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AUSTIN (KXAN) — The worst could be behind us when it comes to COVID-19 hospitalizations and case numbers in this fourth peak, new University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium projections show. They also show ICU admissions will peak in the next couple weeks.
According to a new report from the consortium, which looks specifically at the Austin-Round Rock area:
- We likely saw our peak COVID-19 case numbers on Jan. 9
- Our peak in hospital admissions is projected to be Jan. 25, which has now passed
- ICU admissions will peak between Feb. 3 and 7
That peak in COVID-19 ICU admissions could rival what we’ve seen in previous surges, according to that report. The worst case scenario projection shows ICUs in the Austin-area will hit a rolling 7-day average of 236 people admitted. The best case scenario projection shows we’ll hit 205.
During the height of the delta surge, there were 237 COVID-19 ICU admissions. The difference this time? Health leaders point to staffing.
In a COVID-19 briefing Friday, local health leaders said hospital systems are already stretched thin. During the omicron surge, more hospital staff have been out sick with COVID-19 than in previous surges, meaning there are less staffed beds available.
Douglas Havron, the executive director for the Capital Area of Texas Regional Advisory Council, or CATRAC, which largely oversees hospital operations in the area, said there were almost 300 people admitted to the hospital who were waiting in emergency departments for beds on a single day last week. Almost 40 of those were people who needed to be in an ICU.
Note on the data: Health leaders have also said there are a higher number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in the hospital with other illnesses and injuries. You can read more about that here.
As of Tuesday’s update, there are 143 people in local ICUs right now with COVID-19, and 61 of those people are on a ventilator. Austin-Travis County Health Authority Dr. Desmar Walkes said people who are being admitted for COVID-19 related illnesses in local hospitals are largely unvaccinated.
“The protection afforded by vaccine is not present in those individuals and their course of getting better is lengthened,” she said. “That is impacting our systems by having those beds occupied longer. As those numbers increase, you can see how that then becomes a capacity issue and a strain on the system.”
For more data on COVID-19 case numbers, hospitalizations and vaccination rates in KXAN’s viewing area, check out this report.
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