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SINGAPORE: An Omicron spike in Singapore is inevitable.
But with one of the most highly vaccinated and boosted populations in the world, Singapore is unlikely to witness large numbers of serious infections and deaths. If data from elsewhere holds, this surge is likely to peak in about a month before returning to normal.
While we are prepared, managing this surge won’t be easy. After more than two years, the world is experiencing pandemic fatigue. With each new wave and variant, governments and citizens are increasingly eager for a return to some form of normalcy.
And we are only at the start of this spike. Omicron has just recently arrived in Singapore. Infections have doubled over the past week, and it is gradually displacing Delta as the main virus transmitting in the community.
We should not underestimate the scale of this challenge. The number of global infections has increased four-fold in the past several weeks – from a previous peak of 1 million infections daily during previous surges, to a whopping 4 million with Omicron.
This new variant has been marching steadily across the globe. Omicron was first identified in South Africa in November 2021, with a spike in new cases during December. The UK, Europe and North America were affected in late December, and Latin America in early January. Only recently has the variant been introduced in Asia, with infections in India and Bangladesh increasing over the past two weeks.
Most countries experiencing an Omicron surge have not intensified restrictions. Singapore’s current approach on maintaining moderate restrictions until the end of Chinese New Year are prudent. In the context of Omicron, daily infections alone are no longer an effective signpost.
It is only in the event of a growing strain on health services such as a surge in COVID-related hospitalisations and ICU admissions, that this guidance may need to be revisited. As a minimum, maintaining the present “middle-ground” until we are confident of Omicron’s retreat is a sensible approach.
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